Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.422750 0.488611 0.560490 0.644645 0.740353 0.845691 0.970290
2025-08-10 0.307688 0.396219 0.502601 0.639300 0.809697 1.014453 1.278441
2025-08-17 0.241623 0.337310 0.460788 0.630635 0.856845 1.146222 1.542666
2025-08-24 0.197746 0.295310 0.428883 0.623188 0.896287 1.263707 1.792080
2025-08-31 0.161704 0.256531 0.393386 0.602558 0.910761 1.343980 1.993608
2025-09-07 0.147757 0.246861 0.396463 0.634891 1.000404 1.533305 2.360631
2025-09-14 0.125013 0.219824 0.369410 0.617762 1.013417 1.610954 2.570030
2025-09-21 0.106569 0.196695 0.344933 0.600657 1.022906 1.681742 2.772124
2025-09-28 0.092022 0.177838 0.324655 0.587206 1.035468 1.756404 2.983859
2025-10-05 0.084348 0.169900 0.321524 0.601515 1.093944 1.907372 3.327239
2025-10-12 0.079995 0.167378 0.327327 0.631446 1.180874 2.110605 3.770216
2025-10-19 0.074142 0.161117 0.325500 0.647198 1.243937 2.277841 4.164140
2025-10-26 0.067257 0.152061 0.317779 0.651940 1.288929 2.419673 4.529317
2025-11-02 0.060303 0.141887 0.306741 0.649241 1.320053 2.539775 4.866173
2025-11-09 0.053637 0.131307 0.293540 0.640663 1.338836 2.638426 5.170949
2025-11-16 0.047919 0.121938 0.281609 0.633122 1.358458 2.739331 5.486073
2025-11-23 0.041784 0.110649 0.264191 0.612189 1.349199 2.784620 5.699631
2025-11-30 0.040572 0.110889 0.271817 0.644999 1.451621 3.050814 6.351221
2025-12-07 0.035800 0.101639 0.257108 0.627618 1.448117 3.109473 6.604160
2025-12-14 0.031608 0.093182 0.243144 0.610260 1.442774 3.163475 6.850732
2025-12-21 0.028134 0.086049 0.231401 0.596611 1.443979 3.230334 7.126897
2025-12-28 0.026601 0.083966 0.231682 0.611131 1.508786 3.433002 7.693584
2026-01-04 0.025997 0.084410 0.238308 0.641503 1.611886 3.722945 8.459396